Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Paul 53.3% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 83.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 54.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 68.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Frost
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
53.2% (327)
+1.7%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
61.4% (57)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
50.0% (32)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Frost
Paul
Home
56.0% (443)
54.6% (183)
Away
56.6% (429)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Frost
Paul
P1
58.9%
56.3%
P2
55.3%
54.8%
P3
54.0%
52.4%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |