Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 51.1% vs Paul 50.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 72.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 74.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 74.7%
25.3%
74.7%
Frost
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Frost
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Frost
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (825)
48.8% (666)
+1.5%
Power Play
54.9% (204)
53.8% (65)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
60.0% (55)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Frost shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Frost
Paul
Home
50.7% (489)
49.7% (348)
Away
51.7% (544)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Frost
Paul
P1
53.6%
51.0%
P2
47.8%
47.4%
P3
52.0%
51.5%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |