Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Paul 52.2% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 77.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 56.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Frost
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Frost
Paul
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Frost
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
3
Frost
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
4
7
Frost
Paul
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
52.5% (3,796)
-3.1%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
56.5% (480)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
46.7% (574)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Frost
Paul
Home
51.0% (2,047)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Frost
Paul
P1
50.8%
53.9%
P2
51.1%
51.0%
P3
48.5%
52.0%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:05 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:22 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |