Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Paul 53.9% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 52.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 72.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Frost
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Frost
Paul
Last 7: Frost 4-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Frost
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
53.1% (710)
-4.5%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
57.3% (199)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
58.0% (69)
-33.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +33.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Frost shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Frost
Paul
Home
49.9% (399)
56.0% (466)
Away
49.1% (424)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Frost
Paul
P1
51.2%
57.2%
P2
53.9%
54.9%
P3
42.7%
51.5%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |