Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Thomas 51.7% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 52.5%
Defensive zone
Thomas 84.3%
Neutral zone
Thomas 73.1%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 71.0%
29.0%
71.0%
Frost
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Frost
Thomas
Last 8: Frost 3-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
4
Frost
Thomas
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Frost
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
50.1% (615)
+4.8%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
62.2% (98)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
52.6% (114)
+47.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Frost shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Frost
Thomas
Home
56.0% (443)
51.9% (374)
Away
56.6% (429)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Frost
Thomas
P1
58.9%
49.2%
P2
55.3%
55.3%
P3
54.0%
50.6%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |