Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Lorentz 48.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 66.9%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 66.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 53.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Frost
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Frost
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
48.3% (497)
-2.7%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
63.6% (11)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
38.5% (39)
+17.1%
On power play, Lorentz has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Frost shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Frost
Lorentz
Home
47.0% (440)
50.4% (238)
Away
44.8% (511)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Frost
Lorentz
P1
42.5%
49.1%
P2
47.9%
48.0%
P3
46.6%
47.2%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:00 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |