Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 87.2%
Defensive zone
Frost 53.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 70.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Frost
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Frost
Lorentz
Last 10: Frost 7-3 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
5
1
Frost
Lorentz
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
48.9% (1,118)
+0.5%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
50.0% (26)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
41.9% (86)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Lorentz is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Frost
Lorentz
Home
51.0% (2,047)
50.8% (606)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Frost
Lorentz
P1
50.8%
53.0%
P2
51.1%
46.8%
P3
48.5%
46.1%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:00 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |