Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Lorentz 50.0% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 92.6%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 54.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Frost
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Frost
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
52.2% (67)
+2.7%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
50.0% (2)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
42.9% (21)
+57.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Lorentz is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Home / Away
Frost
Lorentz
Home
56.0% (443)
55.4% (65)
Away
56.6% (429)
36.0% (25)
By Period
Frost
Lorentz
P1
58.9%
59.3%
P2
55.3%
47.1%
P3
54.0%
44.8%
Final 5 min
51.4%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |