Casey Mittelstadt vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 51.5%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.0%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 58.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Last 5: Mittelstadt 2-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
50.0% (992)
+0.4%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
64.9% (148)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
34.4% (32)
+65.6%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +65.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Home
59.3% (91)
53.3% (591)
Away
42.5% (80)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
P1
48.8%
49.9%
P2
49.1%
53.2%
P3
56.7%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:05 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |