Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 80.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 69.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 74.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 8: McDavid 6-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
45.5% (1,190)
+6.1%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
56.4% (94)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
40.0% (30)
-3.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
51.8% (415)
47.8% (670)
Away
50.4% (450)
44.6% (644)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
47.5%
45.3%
P2
51.6%
48.5%
P3
55.5%
45.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |