Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 52.0% vs MacKinnon 43.8% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 63.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 84.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 86.2%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
Ryan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Ryan
MacKinnon
Last 7: Ryan 5-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (603)
44.4% (743)
+9.7%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
35.7% (70)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (85)
25.9% (27)
+20.0%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ryan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Ryan shoots right. MacKinnon is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Ryan
MacKinnon
Home
52.5% (341)
46.4% (394)
Away
52.2% (391)
40.1% (446)
By Period
Ryan
MacKinnon
P1
56.0%
44.4%
P2
48.1%
38.2%
P3
52.8%
46.4%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2019 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |