Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +16.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Farabee wins 29.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Farabee 37.4% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (-16.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Farabee 67.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 66.1%
Neutral zone
Farabee 50.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Farabee
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Farabee
MacKinnon
Last 7: Farabee 3-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Farabee
1
0
Farabee
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Farabee
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Farabee
2
1
Farabee
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Farabee
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
27.5% (120)
45.8% (755)
-18.3%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
48.3% (60)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
27.6% (29)
-15.1%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Farabee is 29.0% vs right-shot opponents (69).
Farabee shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Farabee
MacKinnon
Home
28.1% (57)
49.5% (396)
Away
29.1% (86)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Farabee
MacKinnon
P1
34.0%
50.2%
P2
23.4%
43.8%
P3
28.6%
41.4%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
30.0%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Farabee
44.0%▲
38.5%
28.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Joel Farabee |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Farabee |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Joel Farabee |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 12:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |