Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 67.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
Marner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Marner
MacKinnon
Last 5: Marner 3-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Marner
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
50.0% (992)
-8.5%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
64.9% (148)
-24.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
34.4% (32)
-9.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marner is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Marner shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Marner
MacKinnon
Home
36.1% (158)
53.3% (591)
Away
46.1% (141)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Marner
MacKinnon
P1
41.6%
49.9%
P2
40.2%
53.2%
P3
40.5%
50.8%
Final 5 min
41.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |