Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Kadri 49.0% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 75.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.5%
Neutral zone
Kadri 58.2%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
MacKinnon
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKinnon
Kadri
Last 9: MacKinnon 6-3 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Kadri
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
0
MacKinnon
Kadri
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
2
MacKinnon
Kadri
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
47.7% (975)
-2.2%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
54.0% (226)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
55.6% (9)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Kadri has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kadri is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kadri
Home
47.8% (670)
48.3% (621)
Away
44.6% (644)
49.6% (589)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kadri
P1
45.3%
48.1%
P2
48.5%
48.9%
P3
45.0%
49.8%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:51 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |