Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Kadri 46.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Kadri leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Kadri 60.3%
Defensive zone
Kadri 52.8%
Neutral zone
Kadri 56.1%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
MacKinnon
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
MacKinnon
Kadri
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
3
MacKinnon
Kadri
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
3
MacKinnon
Kadri
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
2
MacKinnon
Kadri
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
45.7% (1,295)
+3.5%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
52.7% (146)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
34.8% (23)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kadri is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (434).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kadri
Home
50.9% (740)
46.5% (725)
Away
49.0% (774)
46.0% (739)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kadri
P1
50.9%
47.2%
P2
51.8%
44.9%
P3
47.1%
46.3%
OT
58.8%
51.4%
Final 5 min
51.2%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:31 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:38 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |