Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 95.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 68.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
MacKinnon
Dowd
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
MacKinnon
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
4
MacKinnon
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
55.2% (625)
-10.5%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
57.1% (7)
-20.3%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
38.2% (220)
+26.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
49.4% (553)
53.7% (445)
Away
40.0% (615)
47.7% (407)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
45.3%
48.8%
P2
42.7%
49.3%
P3
45.1%
54.0%
OT
46.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
49.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:34 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 14:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |