Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Dowd 48.3% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 92.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 72.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
MacKinnon
Dowd
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
5
MacKinnon
Dowd
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
5
MacKinnon
Dowd
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
49.2% (778)
-3.7%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
58.3% (12)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
44.0% (234)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
47.8% (670)
46.3% (492)
Away
44.6% (644)
49.8% (532)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
45.3%
49.1%
P2
48.5%
48.2%
P3
45.0%
46.9%
OT
33.3%
71.4%
Final 5 min
47.4%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 15:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |