Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 17 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 35-16 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 95.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 74.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
35
(51 meetings)
16
35
MacKinnon
Dowd
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
MacKinnon
Dowd
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
14
MacKinnon
Dowd
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
14
MacKinnon
Dowd
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
52.4% (6,009)
-6.3%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
56.1% (164)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
44.1% (1,635)
-1.3%
On even strength, Dowd has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
49.7% (6,444)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
47.4%
51.7%
P2
46.6%
50.4%
P3
46.1%
50.3%
OT
48.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 04:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |