Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 17 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 35-16 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 96.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 60.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 77.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
35
(51 meetings)
16
35
MacKinnon
Dowd
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
MacKinnon
Dowd
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
14
MacKinnon
Dowd
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
14
MacKinnon
Dowd
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,360)
52.4% (6,097)
-6.3%
Power Play
53.2% (1,431)
56.0% (166)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (503)
44.2% (1,646)
-1.5%
On even strength, Dowd has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,678).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,697).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
49.7% (6,527)
51.9% (3,947)
Away
44.0% (6,768)
49.6% (3,963)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
47.4%
51.6%
P2
46.7%
50.4%
P3
46.2%
50.4%
OT
48.7%
45.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
52.0%▲
49.5%
46.8%
Dowd
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 04:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |