Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Dowd 49.1% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 57.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
51.7% (644)
-1.7%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
0.0% (2)
+64.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
41.6% (221)
-7.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +64.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
53.3% (591)
48.6% (451)
Away
49.6% (581)
49.5% (416)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
49.9%
49.1%
P2
53.2%
47.3%
P3
50.8%
51.4%
OT
66.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |