Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 49.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Dowd 49.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 92.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKinnon
Dowd
Last 5: MacKinnon 1-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
52.2% (835)
-3.0%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
60.0% (10)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
44.0% (350)
+5.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
50.9% (740)
51.5% (619)
Away
49.0% (774)
48.1% (576)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
50.9%
51.7%
P2
51.8%
51.6%
P3
47.1%
47.0%
OT
58.8%
22.2%
Final 5 min
51.2%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 04:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |