Nathan MacKinnon vs Nick Schmaltz
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Schmaltz 47.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 72.0%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 52.4%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 58.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
46.5% (484)
+2.6%
Power Play
65.4% (130)
47.5% (99)
+17.9%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
46.7% (15)
-12.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (268).
MacKinnon shoots right. Schmaltz is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (177).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Home
52.6% (489)
45.3% (298)
Away
49.1% (495)
48.0% (300)
By Period
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
P1
50.3%
40.4%
P2
52.6%
46.8%
P3
49.2%
53.4%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |