Nathan MacKinnon vs Nick Schmaltz
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 65.2%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 55.0%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 56.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
45.9% (665)
+4.1%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
46.8% (111)
+18.1%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (24)
-15.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Home
53.3% (591)
44.7% (409)
Away
49.6% (581)
47.6% (391)
By Period
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
P1
49.9%
40.3%
P2
53.2%
47.6%
P3
50.8%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |