Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 42.6% vs Zacha 44.6% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
MacKinnon
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
MacKinnon
Zacha
Last 7: MacKinnon 3-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
MacKinnon
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (953)
43.9% (643)
-3.2%
Power Play
51.4% (148)
48.9% (45)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (55)
37.8% (37)
-1.4%
On even strength, Zacha has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (808).
MacKinnon shoots right. Zacha is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (218).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Zacha
Home
42.1% (617)
44.6% (397)
Away
41.7% (540)
43.0% (328)
By Period
MacKinnon
Zacha
P1
43.4%
43.5%
P2
40.9%
44.6%
P3
40.8%
43.8%
OT
55.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
41.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2017 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 2 | 06:16 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 1 | 14:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |