Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Zacha 54.4% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 56.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 61.0%
Neutral zone
Zacha 52.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
MacKinnon
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
MacKinnon
Zacha
Last 7: MacKinnon 3-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
4
MacKinnon
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
53.9% (787)
-8.4%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
63.2% (193)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
44.3% (88)
-4.3%
On even strength, Zacha has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Zacha
Home
47.8% (670)
56.7% (538)
Away
44.6% (644)
52.8% (530)
By Period
MacKinnon
Zacha
P1
45.3%
52.6%
P2
48.5%
54.8%
P3
45.0%
56.8%
OT
33.3%
59.1%
Final 5 min
47.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:37 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:29 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2024 | OT | 01:21 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |