Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 52.0%). Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Zacha 51.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 72.1%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
MacKinnon
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacKinnon
Zacha
Last 8: MacKinnon 4-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
53.3% (646)
-3.3%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
53.0% (100)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
38.9% (72)
-4.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Zacha is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Zacha
Home
53.3% (591)
51.7% (410)
Away
49.6% (581)
52.2% (408)
By Period
MacKinnon
Zacha
P1
49.9%
57.7%
P2
53.2%
48.9%
P3
50.8%
50.2%
OT
66.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |