Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Zacha 52.8% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 62.3%
Defensive zone
Zacha 59.7%
Neutral zone
Zacha 64.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
MacKinnon
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
MacKinnon
Zacha
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
0
MacKinnon
Zacha
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
3
MacKinnon
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
54.1% (534)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
56.0% (109)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
44.8% (96)
+4.3%
On even strength, Zacha has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Zacha is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Zacha
Home
50.9% (740)
53.4% (406)
Away
49.0% (774)
52.9% (333)
By Period
MacKinnon
Zacha
P1
50.9%
56.8%
P2
51.8%
53.6%
P3
47.1%
49.2%
OT
58.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:44 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |