Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Zacha 50.1% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 50.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 63.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
MacKinnon
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
MacKinnon
Zacha
Last 7: MacKinnon 3-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
48.0% (296)
-2.2%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
61.0% (59)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
50.0% (22)
-22.4%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Zacha is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Zacha
Home
49.5% (396)
48.9% (223)
Away
41.7% (448)
51.9% (154)
By Period
MacKinnon
Zacha
P1
50.2%
47.9%
P2
43.8%
48.3%
P3
41.4%
54.3%
OT
66.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
41.0%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 03:01 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |