Nathan MacKinnon vs Robert Thomas
2021-22 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Thomas 49.9% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
MacKinnon
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
MacKinnon
Thomas
Last 6: MacKinnon 1-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
MacKinnon
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
3
MacKinnon
Thomas
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
49.0% (910)
-3.2%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
53.5% (142)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
53.3% (75)
-25.7%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thomas is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thomas
Home
49.5% (396)
47.3% (514)
Away
41.7% (448)
52.0% (613)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thomas
P1
50.2%
50.4%
P2
43.8%
47.5%
P3
41.4%
51.4%
OT
66.7%
61.5%
Final 5 min
41.0%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 14:37 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 17:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 05:15 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |