Nathan MacKinnon vs Robert Thomas
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Thomas 52.9% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 27-15 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 76.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 84.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
MacKinnon
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
27
(42 meetings)
15
27
MacKinnon
Thomas
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
5
6
MacKinnon
Thomas
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
5
9
MacKinnon
Thomas
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
5
12
MacKinnon
Thomas
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
53.2% (1,166)
-7.7%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
56.9% (262)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
48.4% (221)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thomas is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thomas
Home
47.8% (670)
51.6% (830)
Away
44.6% (644)
54.7% (819)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thomas
P1
45.3%
52.7%
P2
48.5%
55.6%
P3
45.0%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
61.5%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:35 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:46 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:18 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:37 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 09:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 09:33 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:26 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |