Nathan MacKinnon vs Robert Thomas
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 51.9%). MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Thomas 51.7% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 65.1%
Defensive zone
Thomas 63.4%
Neutral zone
Thomas 56.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
MacKinnon
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
MacKinnon
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
50.1% (615)
-0.1%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
62.2% (98)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
52.6% (114)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thomas is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thomas
Home
53.3% (591)
51.9% (374)
Away
49.6% (581)
51.9% (453)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thomas
P1
49.9%
49.2%
P2
53.2%
55.3%
P3
50.8%
50.6%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:22 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |