Nathan MacKinnon vs Robert Thomas
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Thomas 54.5% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 20-16 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 55.9%
Defensive zone
Thomas 73.1%
Neutral zone
Thomas 64.9%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
MacKinnon
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
16
(36 meetings)
20
16
MacKinnon
Thomas
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
3
MacKinnon
Thomas
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
8
6
MacKinnon
Thomas
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
8
7
MacKinnon
Thomas
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
55.3% (990)
-6.1%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
54.2% (190)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
52.5% (158)
-3.4%
On even strength, Thomas has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thomas is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thomas
Home
50.9% (740)
55.1% (690)
Away
49.0% (774)
54.5% (648)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thomas
P1
50.9%
55.5%
P2
51.8%
56.4%
P3
47.1%
51.5%
OT
58.8%
69.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 17:02 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |