Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.4% vs 44.8%). Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Hartman 45.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 52.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 61.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
MacKinnon
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
MacKinnon
Hartman
Last 7: MacKinnon 2-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
MacKinnon
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
MacKinnon
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
44.8% (936)
+1.0%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
49.4% (154)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
33.3% (54)
-5.7%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hartman is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hartman
Home
49.5% (396)
47.4% (568)
Away
41.7% (448)
42.4% (576)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hartman
P1
50.2%
47.2%
P2
43.8%
43.4%
P3
41.4%
43.8%
OT
66.7%
53.8%
Final 5 min
41.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 01:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 07:01 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |