Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 43.8% vs Kuraly 49.0% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 61.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 88.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 74.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Last 8: MacKinnon 5-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
MacKinnon
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
MacKinnon
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (743)
52.4% (416)
-8.0%
Power Play
35.7% (70)
57.1% (7)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
25.9% (27)
32.0% (97)
-6.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (646).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
46.4% (394)
52.1% (259)
Away
40.1% (446)
45.4% (262)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
44.4%
46.8%
P2
38.2%
52.4%
P3
46.4%
47.2%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.1%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 09:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |