Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Kuraly 49.7% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 96.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 80.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
49.2% (901)
-4.5%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
68.2% (22)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
49.8% (219)
+15.2%
On power play, Kuraly has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
49.4% (553)
51.7% (603)
Away
40.0% (615)
47.3% (539)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
45.3%
50.9%
P2
42.7%
49.5%
P3
45.1%
49.1%
OT
46.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |