Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Kuraly 49.5% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 83.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 61.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 65.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
MacKinnon
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
MacKinnon
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
52.3% (982)
-6.5%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
41.9% (43)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
39.2% (245)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (411).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
49.5% (396)
50.3% (680)
Away
41.7% (448)
48.5% (590)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
50.2%
49.5%
P2
43.8%
49.6%
P3
41.4%
49.0%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
41.0%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 15:46 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 10:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 10:18 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |