Nathan MacKinnon vs Sean Kuraly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 26-19 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 89.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 69.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
19
(45 meetings)
26
19
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
15
3
MacKinnon
Kuraly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
13
MacKinnon
Kuraly
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
10
3
MacKinnon
Kuraly
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
51.5% (5,141)
-5.4%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
56.0% (100)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
44.2% (1,086)
-1.4%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,226).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
49.7% (6,444)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
47.4%
51.1%
P2
46.6%
49.9%
P3
46.1%
50.0%
OT
48.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |