Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Monahan 52.8% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 77.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 64.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
MacKinnon
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Monahan
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
MacKinnon
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
51.5% (641)
-5.7%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
62.8% (129)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
33.3% (9)
-5.7%
On power play, Monahan has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Monahan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Monahan
Home
49.5% (396)
53.9% (362)
Away
41.7% (448)
52.5% (417)
By Period
MacKinnon
Monahan
P1
50.2%
48.0%
P2
43.8%
57.0%
P3
41.4%
54.1%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
41.0%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |