Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Monahan 52.4% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 62.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 65.9%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
MacKinnon
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
MacKinnon
Monahan
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
3
MacKinnon
Monahan
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
5
MacKinnon
Monahan
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
52.4% (853)
-3.2%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
58.6% (174)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
46.5% (144)
+2.6%
On power play, Monahan has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Monahan is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Monahan
Home
50.9% (740)
53.4% (624)
Away
49.0% (774)
51.7% (547)
By Period
MacKinnon
Monahan
P1
50.9%
53.7%
P2
51.8%
52.4%
P3
47.1%
51.6%
OT
58.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 08:28 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |