Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Monahan 52.8% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.4%
Defensive zone
Monahan 78.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 65.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
MacKinnon
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
MacKinnon
Monahan
Last 10: MacKinnon 8-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
MacKinnon
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
2
MacKinnon
Monahan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
53.2% (823)
-3.2%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
55.3% (159)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
48.4% (95)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Monahan
Home
53.3% (591)
54.6% (529)
Away
49.6% (581)
51.6% (548)
By Period
MacKinnon
Monahan
P1
49.9%
49.0%
P2
53.2%
55.4%
P3
50.8%
53.6%
OT
66.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |