Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 50.5%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Aho 50.4% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
MacKinnon
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
MacKinnon
Aho
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
MacKinnon
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
5
MacKinnon
Aho
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
50.5% (647)
-1.4%
Power Play
65.4% (130)
54.2% (131)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
38.1% (42)
-3.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
52.6% (489)
53.9% (445)
Away
49.1% (495)
46.4% (375)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
50.3%
48.7%
P2
52.6%
51.4%
P3
49.2%
50.8%
OT
62.5%
58.8%
Final 5 min
55.6%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |