Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 50.5%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) MacKinnon 50.7% vs Aho 50.4% (+0.3%)
H2H factor MacKinnon leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone MacKinnon 51.3%
Defensive zone MacKinnon 56.0%
Neutral zone Aho 53.7%
Result Sebastian Aho favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
MacKinnon Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10 - 9 (19 meetings)
10
9
MacKinnon Aho
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Aho

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
MacKinnon Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
5
MacKinnon Aho
12 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
50.5% (647)
-1.4%
Power Play
65.4% (130)
54.2% (131)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
38.1% (42)
-3.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +11.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
52.6% (489)
53.9% (445)
Away
49.1% (495)
46.4% (375)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
50.3%
48.7%
P2
52.6%
51.4%
P3
49.2%
50.8%
OT
62.5%
58.8%
Final 5 min
55.6%
49.5%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%
54.5%
50.8%
Aho
54.0%
56.5%
50.5%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 3, 2026 3 06:47 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 3, 2026 3 03:34 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Jan 3, 2026 3 00:00 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 3, 2026 2 07:50 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 3, 2026 2 04:47 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 3, 2026 2 00:00 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Jan 3, 2026 1 17:26 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 3, 2026 1 09:55 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Jan 3, 2026 1 06:20 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Jan 3, 2026 1 00:00 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 23, 2025 3 09:45 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Oct 23, 2025 3 05:14 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 23, 2025 2 11:27 Defensive Sebastian Aho
Oct 23, 2025 2 11:20 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Oct 23, 2025 2 06:13 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 23, 2025 2 02:31 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 23, 2025 1 03:07 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Oct 23, 2025 1 01:10 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 23, 2025 1 01:00 Offensive Sebastian Aho