Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Aho 51.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 40-36 in 76 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 68.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
MacKinnon
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
40
(76 meetings)
36
40
MacKinnon
Aho
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
8
16
MacKinnon
Aho
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
12
6
MacKinnon
Aho
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
16
18
MacKinnon
Aho
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
50.1% (6,619)
-4.0%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
58.9% (1,310)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
46.3% (464)
-3.5%
On power play, Aho has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
49.7% (6,444)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
47.4%
51.1%
P2
46.6%
52.0%
P3
46.1%
50.7%
OT
48.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |