Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Aho 50.0% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
MacKinnon
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
MacKinnon
Aho
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
MacKinnon
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
5
MacKinnon
Aho
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
49.9% (851)
+0.1%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
53.5% (144)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
43.3% (60)
-8.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
53.3% (591)
53.2% (554)
Away
49.6% (581)
46.5% (501)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
49.9%
49.1%
P2
53.2%
50.8%
P3
50.8%
49.7%
OT
66.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |