Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho

2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Sebastian Aho holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) MacKinnon 49.9% vs Aho 54.9% (-5.4%)
H2H factor MacKinnon leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone Aho 75.2%
Defensive zone Aho 56.6%
Neutral zone Aho 65.6%
Result Sebastian Aho favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
MacKinnon Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6 - 5 (11 meetings)
6
5
MacKinnon Aho
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Aho

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
MacKinnon Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon Aho
3 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
54.5% (870)
-5.3%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
62.4% (266)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
37.1% (62)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +12.0% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
50.9% (740)
53.9% (603)
Away
49.0% (774)
56.8% (595)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
50.9%
54.1%
P2
51.8%
55.0%
P3
47.1%
57.4%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.2%
55.4%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%
54.0%
49.9%
Aho
42.0%
48.0%
55.3%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Dec 5, 2024 3 01:41 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Nov 9, 2024 3 19:10 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 9, 2024 3 15:27 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 9, 2024 3 15:24 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Nov 9, 2024 3 11:26 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Nov 9, 2024 3 06:51 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 9, 2024 1 14:31 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 9, 2024 1 14:12 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 9, 2024 1 06:22 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Nov 9, 2024 1 00:44 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 9, 2024 1 00:24 Offensive Sebastian Aho