Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Aho 53.8% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 71.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 69.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
MacKinnon
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
MacKinnon
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
MacKinnon
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
51.2% (785)
-5.7%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
63.8% (213)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
57.9% (57)
-17.9%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
47.8% (670)
54.9% (548)
Away
44.6% (644)
53.3% (507)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
45.3%
52.8%
P2
48.5%
58.9%
P3
45.0%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |