Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 50.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Pinto 50.1% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.4%
Defensive zone
Pinto 75.4%
Neutral zone
Pinto 52.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
MacKinnon
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
MacKinnon
Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Pinto
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
1
MacKinnon
Pinto
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Pinto
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
50.4% (779)
-1.2%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
55.2% (29)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
44.9% (78)
+4.2%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Pinto is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Pinto
Home
50.9% (740)
52.4% (454)
Away
49.0% (774)
47.7% (432)
By Period
MacKinnon
Pinto
P1
50.9%
48.1%
P2
51.8%
52.9%
P3
47.1%
49.3%
OT
58.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |