Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 50.8%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Pinto 50.7% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.9%
Defensive zone
Pinto 75.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
MacKinnon
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
MacKinnon
Pinto
Last 8: MacKinnon 7-1 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Pinto
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
0
MacKinnon
Pinto
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
50.2% (520)
-0.2%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
68.0% (25)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
49.4% (89)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Pinto has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Pinto is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Pinto
Home
53.3% (591)
48.8% (301)
Away
49.6% (581)
52.6% (333)
By Period
MacKinnon
Pinto
P1
49.9%
51.2%
P2
53.2%
48.9%
P3
50.8%
53.3%
OT
66.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 14:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |