Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Meier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Meier 47.2% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Meier 50.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.9%
Neutral zone
Meier 51.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
MacKinnon
Meier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
MacKinnon
Meier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Meier
0
1
MacKinnon
Meier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Meier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Meier
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
40.9% (93)
+9.1%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
60.9% (23)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (2)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Meier has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Meier shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Meier is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Meier
Home
53.3% (591)
40.4% (57)
Away
49.6% (581)
49.2% (61)
By Period
MacKinnon
Meier
P1
49.9%
32.6%
P2
53.2%
50.0%
P3
50.8%
59.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Meier
46.0%▲
44.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:05 | Offensive | Timo Meier |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |