Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 48.6% vs Hertl 54.9% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 77.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 70.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 69.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 5: MacKinnon 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
MacKinnon
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
MacKinnon
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (849)
55.0% (382)
-6.8%
Power Play
51.0% (151)
59.7% (67)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
75.0% (8)
-30.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +30.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (705).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
51.2% (521)
58.8% (221)
Away
45.6% (526)
53.4% (236)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
49.9%
52.6%
P2
48.0%
53.6%
P3
47.9%
62.4%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.0%
61.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 15:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |