Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
MacKinnon
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
MacKinnon
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
54.1% (717)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
61.9% (210)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
58.1% (31)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
50.9% (740)
58.1% (492)
Away
49.0% (774)
53.6% (466)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
50.9%
57.1%
P2
51.8%
54.0%
P3
47.1%
56.6%
OT
58.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |