Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 66.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 67.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 9: MacKinnon 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
MacKinnon
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
MacKinnon
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
51.6% (1,084)
-5.8%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
61.0% (246)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
44.1% (136)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
49.5% (396)
55.2% (696)
Away
41.7% (448)
50.0% (770)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
50.2%
55.4%
P2
43.8%
54.8%
P3
41.4%
48.9%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 16:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 14:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 19:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 16:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 12:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |